Analysis of the Relationship between the Exchange Rate and Domestic and International Arrivals in Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.1984-4867.v30i1p184-198Keywords:
Nominal exchange rate, International tourist arrivals, Domestic tourist arrivals, Vectors autoregressionAbstract
This article aims to analyze, through an econometric test, the effects of the nominal exchange rate on the number of domestic and international tourist arrivals in Brazil from 2001 to 2016. The methodology was an exploratory and quantitative research with a secondary data, using vectors autoregression to identify Granger causality, decomposition of variance and impulse response function. The analysis shows that there is a relation of causality and influence between the variables. It was noted that the exchange rate assumed in this study, the role of the most independent variable, because it influenced the other variables, but was not influenced by them. In addition, the domestic arrivals represented the variable that most suffered impacts of the nominal exchange rate and international arrivals. The findings corroborate with other studies that say the tourist demand is affected by the exchange rate. However, the innovation of this article is to use domestic and international arrivals as variables to analyze the possible influence of the exchange rate on them.
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