Technological transition and technological dependency: Latin America–China relations in a changing international order

Abstract

Purpose: This paper aims to present a conceptual framework of the relationship between technological transitions and hegemonic transitions in the international system from a historical perspective and discuss its consequences for technologically dependent countries and regions. Design/methodology/approach: This paper analyses the relationship between technological transitions and hegemonic transitions in the international system from a historical perspective. It then constructs four possible transition scenarios for China's international order and the United States' central role in defining the international order. It closes with a discussion on how changes in ICT and global health public goods can impact China's position in the international order and create opportunities and constraints for Latin America-China technology partnerships. Findings: Historically, technological transitions and hegemonic transitions in the international system coincide, with the country winning the technological dispute emerging as the international system's hegemon. The United States and China are currently involved in technological races in several next-generation technologies. The outcome of these technological races will define each country's position in the international system in the coming decades and the transformations in the international order. Research limitations/implications: This paper is limited to a broad discussion of the following technologies/ and sectors: ICT, specifically 5G, and AI technologies, and medical technologies that have potential as global public health goods. Research on other technologies or sectors will provide a deeper understanding of possible outcomes of the current technological transition and its implications for the balance of power in the international system. Practical implications: This paper makes a case for Latin American countries to 1) engage in a pragmatic bargain with China and the United States to establish technological partnerships in emerging technologies and 2) to develop national technology strategies aimed at promoting autonomous technologicaldevelopment capabilities. Social implications: This paper addresses the need for Latin America to take a firm stance for technological autonomy, stressing the differences in buying technology and making technology. Originality/value: This paper presents an original framework of the relationship between technological transitions and hegemonic transitions in the international system. It discusses how technological leadership impacts the international order by establishing relations of technological dominance and technological dependency.