Evaluation of South Atlantic Thermohaline Properties from BESM-OA2.5 and Three Additional Global Climate Models
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/2675-2824069.21012mfb%20%20%20Keywords:
Climate model, Models evaluation, Thermohaline propertiesAbstract
Important global oceanic processes, such as the meridional overturning circulation, are governed by the temperature and
salinity of the ocean. As such, it is essential that these properties be correctly represented in high-quality global climate
models. This study aims to evaluate thermohaline properties both historically and under two simulations of the Brazilian
Earth System Model BESM-OA2.5 in the South Atlantic Ocean (Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5).
Since error assessment in the global climate model (GCM) is fundamental to infer climate change projections, comparisons
were made for thermohaline properties among four GCMs (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC5, and BESM-OA2.5)
against data from ocean monitoring programs and from ORAS5-ECMWF. The results show common surface spatial pattern
errors in all models, commonly related to mesoscale processes. Specific to BESM-OA2.5 over the Southern Ocean, we
observed an increase in the temperature bias during autumn and summer, probably due to subsurface temperature
overestimation linked to North Antarctic Deep Water (NADW) formation. With respect to salinity, the underestimations
in the Subtropical/Subantarctic Zones and in the north of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre were linked to simulation
errors in the Malvinas current. All models presented overestimated annual historical temperature rates, with BESM-OA2.5
being the closest to ORAS5. In the subsurface, the BESM-OA2.5 did not easily simulate the South Atlantic Central Water
(SACW) formation, though in deep water, the model was able to better simulate the Antarctic Intermediate Water and
NADW patterns. Statistically, the multi-model means performed better, while the BESM-OA2.5 performed worst among
the models in both methodologies applied. In terms of projected scenarios, the models demonstrated sensitivity to
variations in greenhouse gas emissions between the RCPs, with higher magnitude warming predicted in the equatorial
zone, except for BESM-OA2.5
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