Sustentabilidade da conta corrente dos EUA e do Brasil e o papel da diferença entre as taxas de retorno de ativos e passivos externos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea172350Palavras-chave:
balança comercial, posição externa líquida, solvência externaResumo
Este trabalho analisa o comportamento das contas externas dos Estados Unidos e do Brasil em 1970-2017 para entender se a trajetória da conta corrente é sustentável no longo prazo. Há evidência de comportamento explosivo por parte dos ativos e passivos externos dos EUA. Se os ativos do país no exterior continuarem com uma taxa de retorno maior do que a taxa que remunera passivos externos, conseguirá prosseguir com uma Balança Comercial deficitária sem deixar de ser solvente. No caso brasileiro, a evidência é de solvência externa, mas sem diferença entre as taxas de retorno dos ativos e dos passivos externos.
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