Abordagem intertemporal da conta corrente: introduzindo câmbio e juros no modelo básico

Abstract

The standard model of the intertemporal approach of current account assumes restrictive hypothesis that all goods are tradables and that foreign interest rate is constant. In this paper we follow Bergin and Sheffrin's (2000) model to evaluate the dynamic of the current account and the capital mobility in Brazil. BS model follows the line of the present value models and it enables us to insert interest and exchange rates. Tests of the model follow the econometric technique developed by Campbell (1987) and Campbell and Shiller (1987). The empirical results of this work suggest that the introduction of the interest and exchange rates in the intertemporal model is not enough for one to consistently explain the fluctuations of the Brazilian current account balance.