Epidemia e contenção: cenários emergentes do pós-Covid-19

Abstract

This paper addresses the topic of post-covid-19 scenario projections. It aims to present a methodological framework for evaluating post-covid-19 scenarios. By applying the continuity principle – which establishes that there is an extension of the Pre-Impact (Time-1) period into the Post-Impact period (Time-2) – it argues that post-covid-19 conditions are socially latent in the pre-covid-19 period. More precisely, the unleashing of the covid pandemic in general, and of social distancing actions in particular, have accelerated pre-existing social change processes. This means that the more scenarios take into account this phenomenon, the greater their empirical adequacy. Based on these premises, the article seeks, on the one hand, to evaluate existing scenarios and, on the other, to propose a new scenario.